PubTransformer

A site to transform Pubmed publications into these bibliographic reference formats: ADS, BibTeX, EndNote, ISI used by the Web of Knowledge, RIS, MEDLINE, Microsoft's Word 2007 XML.

Temperature modulates dengue virus epidemic growth rates through its effects on reproduction numbers and generation intervals.

Abstract Epidemic growth rate, r, provides a more complete description of the potential for epidemics than the more commonly studied basic reproduction number, R0, yet the former has never been described as a function of temperature for dengue virus or other pathogens with temperature-sensitive transmission. The need to understand the drivers of epidemics of these pathogens is acute, with arthropod-borne virus epidemics becoming increasingly problematic. We addressed this need by developing temperature-dependent descriptions of the two components of r-R0 and the generation interval-to obtain a temperature-dependent description of r. Our results show that the generation interval is highly sensitive to temperature, decreasing twofold between 25 and 35°C and suggesting that dengue virus epidemics may accelerate as temperatures increase, not only because of more infections per generation but also because of faster generations. Under the empirical temperature relationships that we considered, we found that r peaked at a temperature threshold that was robust to uncertainty in model parameters that do not depend on temperature. Although the precise value of this temperature threshold could be refined following future studies of empirical temperature relationships, the framework we present for identifying such temperature thresholds offers a new way to classify regions in which dengue virus epidemic intensity could either increase or decrease under future climate change.
PMID
Related Publications

Imported and autochthonous cases in the dynamics of dengue epidemics in Brazil.

Assessing potential countermeasures against the dengue epidemic in non-tropical urban cities.

Vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti: effects of temperature and implications for global dengue epidemic potential.

The basic reproduction number R0 and effectiveness of reactive interventions during dengue epidemics: the 2002 dengue outbreak in Easter Island, Chile.

Climate change, population immunity, and hyperendemicity in the transmission threshold of dengue.

Authors

Mayor MeshTerms

Basic Reproduction Number

Epidemics

Temperature

Keywords
Journal Title plos neglected tropical diseases
Publication Year Start




PMID- 28723920
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DA  - 20170720
DCOM- 20170809
LR  - 20170809
IS  - 1935-2735 (Electronic)
IS  - 1935-2727 (Linking)
VI  - 11
IP  - 7
DP  - 2017 Jul
TI  - Temperature modulates dengue virus epidemic growth rates through its effects on
      reproduction numbers and generation intervals.
PG  - e0005797
LID - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005797 [doi]
AB  - Epidemic growth rate, r, provides a more complete description of the potential
      for epidemics than the more commonly studied basic reproduction number, R0, yet
      the former has never been described as a function of temperature for dengue virus
      or other pathogens with temperature-sensitive transmission. The need to
      understand the drivers of epidemics of these pathogens is acute, with
      arthropod-borne virus epidemics becoming increasingly problematic. We addressed
      this need by developing temperature-dependent descriptions of the two components 
      of r-R0 and the generation interval-to obtain a temperature-dependent description
      of r. Our results show that the generation interval is highly sensitive to
      temperature, decreasing twofold between 25 and 35 degrees C and suggesting that
      dengue virus epidemics may accelerate as temperatures increase, not only because 
      of more infections per generation but also because of faster generations. Under
      the empirical temperature relationships that we considered, we found that r
      peaked at a temperature threshold that was robust to uncertainty in model
      parameters that do not depend on temperature. Although the precise value of this 
      temperature threshold could be refined following future studies of empirical
      temperature relationships, the framework we present for identifying such
      temperature thresholds offers a new way to classify regions in which dengue virus
      epidemic intensity could either increase or decrease under future climate change.
FAU - Siraj, Amir S
AU  - Siraj AS
AUID- ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9275-0380
AD  - Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University
      of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, United States of America.
FAU - Oidtman, Rachel J
AU  - Oidtman RJ
AD  - Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University
      of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, United States of America.
FAU - Huber, John H
AU  - Huber JH
AD  - Department of Applied and Computational Mathematics and Statistics, University of
      Notre Dame, Notre Dame, United States of America.
FAU - Kraemer, Moritz U G
AU  - Kraemer MUG
AD  - Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
AD  - Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, United States of
      America.
AD  - Department of Informatics, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, United States of
      America.
FAU - Brady, Oliver J
AU  - Brady OJ
AD  - Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of
      Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
AD  - Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene &
      Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
FAU - Johansson, Michael A
AU  - Johansson MA
AD  - Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,
      San Juan, Puerto Rico.
AD  - Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard TH Chan School of Public
      Health, Boston, United States of America.
FAU - Perkins, T Alex
AU  - Perkins TA
AD  - Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University
      of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, United States of America.
LA  - eng
GR  - U54 GM088558/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States
PT  - Journal Article
DEP - 20170719
PL  - United States
TA  - PLoS Negl Trop Dis
JT  - PLoS neglected tropical diseases
JID - 101291488
SB  - IM
MH  - *Basic Reproduction Number
MH  - Dengue/*epidemiology
MH  - *Epidemics
MH  - Humans
MH  - Models, Theoretical
MH  - *Temperature
PMC - PMC5536440
EDAT- 2017/07/21 06:00
MHDA- 2017/08/10 06:00
CRDT- 2017/07/21 06:00
PHST- 2017/02/01 [received]
PHST- 2017/07/11 [accepted]
PHST- 2017/07/31 [revised]
AID - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005797 [doi]
AID - PNTD-D-17-00152 [pii]
PST - epublish
SO  - PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2017 Jul 19;11(7):e0005797. doi:
      10.1371/journal.pntd.0005797. eCollection 2017 Jul.