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On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil.

Abstract The timing and origin of Zika virus (ZIKV) introduction in Brazil has been the subject of controversy. Initially, it was assumed that the virus was introduced during the FIFA World Cup in June-July 2014. Then, it was speculated that ZIKV may have been introduced by athletes from French Polynesia (FP) who competed in a canoe race in Rio de Janeiro in August 2014. We attempted to apply mathematical models to determine the most likely time window of ZIKV introduction in Brazil. Given that the timing and origin of ZIKV introduction in Brazil may be a politically sensitive issue, its determination (or the provision of a plausible hypothesis) may help to prevent undeserved blame. We used a simple mathematical model to estimate the force of infection and the corresponding individual probability of being infected with ZIKV in FP. Taking into account the air travel volume from FP to Brazil between October 2013 and March 2014, we estimated the expected number of infected travellers arriving at Brazilian airports during that period. During the period between December 2013 and February 2014, 51 individuals travelled from FP airports to 11 Brazilian cities. Basing on the calculated force of ZIKV infection (the per capita rate of new infections per time unit) and risk of infection (probability of at least one new infection), we estimated that 18 (95% CI 12-22) individuals who arrived in seven of the evaluated cities were infected. When basic ZIKV reproduction numbers greater than one were assumed in the seven evaluated cities, ZIKV could have been introduced in any one of the cities. Based on the force of infection in FP, basic reproduction ZIKV number in selected Brazilian cities, and estimated travel volume, we concluded that ZIKV was most likely introduced and established in Brazil by infected travellers arriving from FP in the period between October 2013 and March 2014, which was prior to the two aforementioned sporting events.
PMID
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Authors

Mayor MeshTerms
Keywords

Force of infection

French Polynesia

Zika virus

mathematical models

risk

Journal Title epidemiology and infection
Publication Year Start




PMID- 28675351
OWN - NLM
STAT- Publisher
DA  - 20170704
LR  - 20170704
IS  - 1469-4409 (Electronic)
IS  - 0950-2688 (Linking)
DP  - 2017 Jun 15
TI  - On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil.
PG  - 1-10
LID - 10.1017/S0950268817001200 [doi]
AB  - The timing and origin of Zika virus (ZIKV) introduction in Brazil has been the
      subject of controversy. Initially, it was assumed that the virus was introduced
      during the FIFA World Cup in June-July 2014. Then, it was speculated that ZIKV
      may have been introduced by athletes from French Polynesia (FP) who competed in a
      canoe race in Rio de Janeiro in August 2014. We attempted to apply mathematical
      models to determine the most likely time window of ZIKV introduction in Brazil.
      Given that the timing and origin of ZIKV introduction in Brazil may be a
      politically sensitive issue, its determination (or the provision of a plausible
      hypothesis) may help to prevent undeserved blame. We used a simple mathematical
      model to estimate the force of infection and the corresponding individual
      probability of being infected with ZIKV in FP. Taking into account the air travel
      volume from FP to Brazil between October 2013 and March 2014, we estimated the
      expected number of infected travellers arriving at Brazilian airports during that
      period. During the period between December 2013 and February 2014, 51 individuals
      travelled from FP airports to 11 Brazilian cities. Basing on the calculated force
      of ZIKV infection (the per capita rate of new infections per time unit) and risk 
      of infection (probability of at least one new infection), we estimated that 18
      (95% CI 12-22) individuals who arrived in seven of the evaluated cities were
      infected. When basic ZIKV reproduction numbers greater than one were assumed in
      the seven evaluated cities, ZIKV could have been introduced in any one of the
      cities. Based on the force of infection in FP, basic reproduction ZIKV number in 
      selected Brazilian cities, and estimated travel volume, we concluded that ZIKV
      was most likely introduced and established in Brazil by infected travellers
      arriving from FP in the period between October 2013 and March 2014, which was
      prior to the two aforementioned sporting events.
FAU - Massad, E
AU  - Massad E
AD  - School of Medicine,University of Sao Paulo,Brazil.
FAU - Burattini, M Nascimento
AU  - Burattini MN
AD  - School of Medicine,University of Sao Paulo,Brazil.
FAU - Khan, K
AU  - Khan K
AD  - Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital,Toronto,Canada.
FAU - Struchiner, C J
AU  - Struchiner CJ
AD  - Programme of Scientific Computation, Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz,Rio de Janeiro,Brazil.
FAU - Coutinho, F A B
AU  - Coutinho FAB
AD  - School of Medicine,University of Sao Paulo,Brazil.
FAU - Wilder-Smith, A
AU  - Wilder-Smith A
AD  - Institute of Public Health,University of Heidelberg,Germany.
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
DEP - 20170615
PL  - England
TA  - Epidemiol Infect
JT  - Epidemiology and infection
JID - 8703737
OTO - NOTNLM
OT  - Force of infection
OT  - French Polynesia
OT  - Zika virus
OT  - mathematical models
OT  - risk
EDAT- 2017/07/05 06:00
MHDA- 2017/07/05 06:00
CRDT- 2017/07/05 06:00
AID - S0950268817001200 [pii]
AID - 10.1017/S0950268817001200 [doi]
PST - aheadofprint
SO  - Epidemiol Infect. 2017 Jun 15:1-10. doi: 10.1017/S0950268817001200.